The pace of job growth cooled through mid-2025, while the unemployment rate rose relatively little. This seeming puzzle is ...

The change in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era. One way to assess the effects of such a ...

What is the contribution of changes in female labor supply to the decline of employment in routine jobs observed in the U.S.

What is the contribution of changes in female labor supply to the decline of employment in routine jobs observed in the U.S. between 1970 and 2000? While typically attributed to changes in labor ...

Recessions are periods where the labor market deteriorates rapidly. Supporting business conditions to prevent such ...

In this paper we exploit 150 years of tariff policy in the US and abroad to estimate the short-run effects of tariff shocks on macro aggregates. A careful review of the major changes in US tariff ...

Highlights from 2025 around the Twelfth District. Discover how the SF Fed engages, listens to communities, and learns from ...

To better understand the potential impacts of generative AI (gen AI) on the economy, this analysis uses quantitative methods to assess the extent to which workers are likely to be exposed to AI on the ...

Mary C. Daly 2024 Commencement Address at the University of San Francisco School of Management. As we wrap up Zip Code Economies 1.5, we want to know how young people are faring. So we reconnect with ...

Working papers are academic research by SF Fed economists and affiliates intended for publication in scholarly journals. This section contains working papers on monetary economics and macro-finance ...