Weak area of low pressure formed about 100 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, accompanied by showers, thunderstorms for July Fourth holiday weekend.

While water temperatures are warm enough in the Gulf to support tropical development, Saharan dust and wind shear could keep tropics quiet .. sort of.

An unsettled weather pattern will heighten the risk of flooding across Central Florida, especially during peak Fourth of July holiday travel and events. Here's a look at what to expect from the weather ahead of the holiday weekend.