YR4 has a 2.3% chance of hitting Earth in the year 2032. But according to new estimates, it may have an even smaller chance of hitting the moon instead.

The 2024 YR4 asteroid, which is nearly the size of a football field, now has roughly a 0.004% chance of hitting Earth in about eight years, according to the space agency's latest calculations. The Center for Near-Earth Object Studies previously projected a 3% chance of the asteroid striking our planet before lowering the chance to 0.28% last week.